Chance of war within two years seen as unlikely

This article was published by the Taiwan Headlines on March 23, 2006. It reports that according to the National Security Bureau, military conflict between Taiwan and China will not be possible in the future two years unless "contingencies break out in the region". However, cross-Taiwan Strait relations will remain tense.

According to the National Security Bureau, various factors may jeopardize the cross-strait situation. These include the widening military imbalance between the two sides, the role of the United States as a deterrent in preventing war in the Taiwan Strait, the power struggles and rising nationalism in China, and the political situation in Taiwan.

Although President Chen Shui-bian recently announced the government's decision to cease the function of the National Unification Council and the National Unification Guidelines, Beijing seems to think that Taiwan has not yet crossed the "red line" that will prompt China to use force against Taiwan.

More significantly, if Taiwan does not further its moves toward formal independence in planned constitutional amendments, such as changing the nation's official title, its national flag and territory, then China is not expected to act rashly against Taiwan.

According to the National Security Bureau, there are two reasons why it is unlikely for China to ignite a cross-strait conflict in the future two years. One is that China needs political stability prior to its 17th plenary session of the National People's Congress in autumn 2007, because it involved a major power transfer within the Communist Party. The other is that China as the host the Olympic Games in 2008 will strive to maintain a peaceful and rational face in front of the international community.